Runsweetly
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 64
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 19/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |