Risk Factor
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |