3
Alrasikh
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 9-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |