11
Apollo Eleven
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 73
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#14
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 4-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 08/01/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 16/03/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 22/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 10/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |