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7

Arthur's Court

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89

Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#11

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Fair Grounds 20/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 117 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 90 par20/11C5OR 90C5 @ Fair Grounds 27/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 96 · 1m Fm 117 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 96 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 10/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 96 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 96 par10/01C7OR 96C8 @ Fair Grounds 06/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 94 parC8 @ Fair Grounds 15/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 93 · 1m70y 122 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 93 par15/03C8OR 93C8 @ Oaklawn Park 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m110y 123 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 89 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 89 par25/05C8OR 89C8 @ Ellis Park 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 1m Gd 123 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 88 parC7 @ Penn National 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 91 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 91 par18/08C7OR 91projClass-projected finish: 13th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-18Penn National?4th4th0
2026-07-10Ellis Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-25Churchill Downs?9th10th−1
2026-04-23Oaklawn Park?1st2nd−1
2026-03-15Fair Grounds?3rd4th−1
2026-02-06Fair Grounds?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/116/0225/0518/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1719% of fieldRange 8-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/11/20255th12/137%60%+0.23
27/12/20257th9/153%45%-0.07
10/01/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
06/02/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
15/03/20263rd1/195%60%-0.35
23/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
25/05/20269th9/276%0%-0.76
10/07/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
18/08/20264th11/893%0%-0.93