4
Babble
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 87
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 4-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |