17
Good Friday Man
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#15
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-09-04 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 6-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 18/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |