6
Ragman
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 3-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |