13
Red Sky Morning
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |