5
Regalpains
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-13 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 170% of fieldRange 15-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 17th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |