1
Saratoga Cruiser
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 24/04/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |