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15

Starship Magellan

5yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 79

Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#17

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 25/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m110y Fas 119 · below its mark25/03/2026 · OR 69 par25/03C8OR 69C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 01/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark01/04/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Gulfstream 11/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m110y Fas 123 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 65 par11/04C8OR 65C8 @ Gulfstream 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Gulfstream 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 79 par16/05C8OR 79C8 @ Colonial Downs 25/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 76 · 1m Gd 123 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m 123 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 75 par22/07C8OR 75C8 @ Colonial Downs 07/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 69 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 69 par29/08C8OR 69projClass-projected finish: 17th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Colonial Downs?9th10th−1
2026-08-07Colonial Downs?6th7th−1
2026-07-22Colonial Downs?6th7th−1
2026-06-25Colonial Downs?6th7th−1
2026-05-16Gulfstream?4th5th−1
2026-04-30Gulfstream?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0330/0422/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 8-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/03/20266th50/10%38%+0.38
01/04/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
11/04/20268th50/10%13%+0.13
30/04/20262nd40/10%80%+0.80
16/05/20264th12/137%63%+0.26
25/06/20266th14/126%0%-0.26
22/07/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
07/08/20266th40/10%38%+0.38
29/08/20269th40/10%20%+0.20