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3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 81

Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#5

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 43 · 1m 120 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 43 par4/04C9OR 43C9 @ Laurel Park 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 113C9 @ Delaware Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 49 · 1m Fas 118 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 49 par16/05C9OR 49C9 @ Delaware Park 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m70y 114 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 60 parC9 @ Delaware Park 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 56 · 1m 119 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 56 par18/06C9OR 56C8 @ Delaware Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m110y Fas 119 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 57 parC8 @ Delaware Park 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 1m 119 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 69 par8/08C8OR 69C7 @ Delaware Park 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 81 · 1m70y 117 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 81 parC7 @ Delaware Park 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m1f Fm 119 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 77 par10/09C7OR 77projClass-projected finish: 7th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Delaware Park?5th5th0
2026-08-21Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-08-08Delaware Park?1st2nd−1
2026-07-04Delaware Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-18Delaware Park?1st3rd−2
2026-05-30Delaware Park?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0430/058/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1750% of fieldRange 7-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength32%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20266th20/10%38%+0.38
24/04/20265th40/10%60%+0.60
16/05/20264th9/153%50%-0.03
30/05/20262nd6/168%83%+0.15
18/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
04/07/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
08/08/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
21/08/20262nd5/174%67%-0.07
10/09/20265th16/116%50%+0.34