5
Big Bolt
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 42
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 15/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |