3
Chestertown Jane
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 65
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
58%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 17/05/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |