2
Let 'er Sizzle
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 56
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 11% | -0.47 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 12/09/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |