IvyArcIvyArc
1

Run Chachy Run

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 51

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Delaware Park 23/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 6f 119 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 59 par23/08C9OR 59C9 @ Delaware Park 13/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 6f 119 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 57 parC9 @ Charles Town 02/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 47 · 7f Gd 122 · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 47 par2/04C9OR 47C9 @ Delaware Park 13/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 48 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 48 parC9 @ Delaware Park 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 50 · 5f110y Gd 117 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 50 par28/05C9OR 50C9 @ Delaware Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 49 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 49 parC9 @ Delaware Park 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 47 · 5f110y 117 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 47 par31/07C9OR 47C9 @ Delaware Park 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 45 · 5f110y Gd 117 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 45 parC8 @ Delaware Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 43 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 43 par12/09C8OR 43projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-08-27Delaware Park?1st2nd−1
2026-07-31Delaware Park?6th7th−1
2026-07-04Delaware Park?12th13th−1
2026-05-28Delaware Park?4th5th−1
2026-05-13Delaware Park?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0813/0531/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +8.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20254th10/147%40%-0.07
13/09/20258th12/137%22%-0.15
02/04/20265th4/179%33%-0.46
13/05/20267th25/10%0%0.00
28/05/20264th13/266%40%-0.26
04/07/202612th25/10%0%0.00
31/07/20266th10/147%29%-0.19
27/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
12/09/20264th25/10%75%+0.75