2
El Papacito
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 55
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |