5
Why Me Lord
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 54
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |