Aughlish
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 65
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights At Dundalk Claiming Maiden · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Down Royal | BHA68 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -26.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |