Cleopatra Dream

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 46

Dundalk · Friday Night Lights At Dundalk Claiming Maiden · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength14%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 9.8)

Highest class: BHA48

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Navan	BHA48	12th	9th	+3	1.2
2026-01-09	Dundalk	?	12th	13th	−1	1.0
2025-12-12	Dundalk	?	5th	6th	−1	4.4
2025-11-28	Dundalk	?	10th	11th	−1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 6-17 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▬

Strength30%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/11/2025	10th	33/1	0%	25%	+0.25
12/12/2025	5th	80/1	0%	64%	+0.64
09/01/2026	12th	150/1	0%	15%	+0.15
05/09/2026	12th	50/1	0%	35%	+0.35