In The Gloaming
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 63
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights At Dundalk Claiming Maiden · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 8.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA69 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA72 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Curragh | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 31/07/2026 | 18th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |