8
Sarfarcat
3yo Filly · 9-2
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights At Dundalk Claiming Maiden · 6f
#17
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 10.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Dundalk | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Dundalk | ? | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Dundalk | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1713% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 09/01/2026 | 14th | 400/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/07/2026 | 11th | 300/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |