6
White Smoke
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 57
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights At Dundalk Claiming Maiden · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA67 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA79 | 12th | 13th | −0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Cork | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1775% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 100/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 93% | +0.12 |
| 08/10/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 69% | -0.25 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 09/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |