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11

Caffu Zafeen

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 48

Dundalk · View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a falling mark when opening account under this rider in 17-runner handicap at Fairyhouse 4 days ago, well on top at the finish. Remains well treated on old form under a penalty, so enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 19/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 69 · 5f21y GF 129 · below its mark19/05/2025 · OR 69 par19/055OR 695 @ Newmarket 20/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 66 parBHA63 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 21 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 133 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 63 par7/0663OR 63BHA62 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 62 · 7f45y Goo 132 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA60 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 142 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 60 par3/0860OR 60BHA56 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 27 · OR 56 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 56 parBHA54 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 54 · 6f Yie 124 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 54 par29/0854OR 54BHA49 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 49 · 5f Gd 132 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 49 parBHA48 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 48 · 6f Goo 119 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 48 par21/0948OR 48projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA481st1st0
2026-09-05NavanBHA495th5th0
2026-08-29CurraghBHA5414th14th0
2026-08-22CurraghBHA569th9th0
2026-08-03NaasBHA6011th11th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA6215th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0518/0629/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20256th11/486%17%-0.69
20/06/20256th5/174%38%-0.36
07/06/202618th33/10%15%+0.15
18/06/202615th66/10%0%0.00
03/08/202611th20/10%29%+0.29
22/08/20269th33/10%69%+0.69
29/08/202614th12/137%28%-0.09
05/09/20265th22/10%76%+0.76
21/09/20261st22/10%100%+1.00