3
Coincidental Glory
3yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 72
Dundalk · View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA61 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA64 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA64 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA65 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA65 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | BHA66 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 82% | +0.27 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 93% | +0.27 |
| 27/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.41 |
| 29/08/2026 | 13th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 21/09/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |