1
Initial Blue
4yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 74
Dundalk · View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laytown | BHA69 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Nottingham | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kempton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |