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9

Kc Bear

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 60

Dundalk · View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner over C&D in December last year and continued in good heart with 3 in-frame efforts to start the current campaign. Not in the same form since, though was left with a lot to do when mid-field over 7f here a week ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f Std 13212/11C8BHA59 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 59 · 6f Std 138 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 59 parBHA60 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 60 par10/1260OR 60BHA65 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m Std 133 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 65 parBHA65 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f Gd 133 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 65 par28/0565OR 65BHA64 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 64 · 1m160y Goo 134 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 64 parBHA65 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 65 · 7f Std 135 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 65 par12/0765OR 65BHA65 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 65 · 1m20y Goo 129 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 65 parBHA62 @ Dundalk 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f Std 130 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 62 par18/0962OR 62projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DundalkBHA626th6th0
2026-08-27NavanBHA657th7th0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA658th8th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA642nd2nd0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA654th4th0
2026-03-13DundalkBHA652nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1113/0312/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%

Delivery trend -7.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/20258th28/10%46%+0.46
28/11/20253rd14/126%85%+0.58
10/12/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
13/03/20262nd1/195%86%-0.09
28/05/20264th12/137%75%+0.38
01/07/20262nd5/174%92%+0.19
12/07/20268th4/179%30%-0.49
27/08/20267th10/147%50%+0.03
18/09/20266th8/158%62%+0.04