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11

Cannonball Queen

4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 43

Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#16

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-grade handicapper but she's in reasonable nick, shaping as though in need of return to 1m at Cork 16 days ago. Gets that here on all-weather debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 10.6)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 1292/09C8C8 @ Gowran Park 20/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 1m1f100y Hvy 129BHA62 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 17th of 26 · OR 62 · 7f Yie 130 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 62 par16/1062OR 62BHA59 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 59 · 7f Yie 141 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 59 parBHA58 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m50y Yie 128 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 58 par25/0458OR 58BHA54 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 54 · 7f Gd 124 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 54 parBHA46 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 46 · 7f42y Goo 129 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 46 par6/0846OR 46BHA46 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 46 · 1m20y Goo 128 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 46 parBHA43 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 43 · 7f Goo 125 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 43 par9/0943OR 43projClass-projected finish: 6th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA437th7th0
2026-09-02NavanBHA466th6th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA464th4th0
2026-05-04CurraghBHA5415th15th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA5814th14th0
2026-04-15LeopardstownBHA5912th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0915/046/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/202512th66/10%27%+0.27
20/09/202511th100/10%33%+0.33
16/10/202517th100/10%36%+0.36
15/04/202612th40/10%0%0.00
25/04/202614th80/10%0%0.00
04/05/202615th125/10%0%0.00
06/08/20264th12/137%81%+0.44
02/09/20266th17/255%67%+0.11
09/09/20267th8/158%71%+0.14