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12

Dubai Opulence

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 47

Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped quite well when fourth of 12 in handicap at Sligo (6f) 51 days ago, not ideally placed. First run for yard after leaving Miss Natalia Lupini and a tongue tie goes on switched to all-weather with 1m worth exploring. One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sft 1314/10C8C8 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 5f180y Sft 12622/10C8C8 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR - · 6f Hvy 13315/03C8BHA53 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 53 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 53 par12/0653OR 53BHA50 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 50 · 5f180y Goo 119 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 50 par11/0750OR 50BHA51 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 51 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 51 par24/0751OR 51BHA51 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 51 · 6f Yie 133 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 51 par5/0851OR 51projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05SligoBHA514th4th0
2026-07-24CorkBHA516th6th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA504th4th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA5313th13th0
2026-03-15Curragh?15th15th0
2025-10-22Navan?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1012/065/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1750% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20258th28/10%42%+0.42
22/10/20259th25/10%38%+0.38
15/03/202615th28/10%7%+0.07
12/06/202613th28/10%14%+0.14
11/07/20264th40/10%79%+0.79
24/07/20266th4/179%72%-0.07
05/08/20264th4/179%73%-0.06