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10

Glen Breeze

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 49

Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed previous promise without looking the easiest ride when winning 14-runner handicap at Limerick (7f, good to firm) in July. Shaped better than the distance beaten suggests when 4 lengths ninth of 14 to Phoenix Pairc at Roscommon but harder to excuse Navan run.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA50 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 50 · 5f180y Yie 124 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 50 par16/0550OR 50BHA44 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 44 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 44 parBHA45 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 45 · 6f Goo 119 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 45 par12/0645OR 45BHA44 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 44 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 44 parBHA46 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 46 · 6f150y Gd 126 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 46 par11/0746OR 46BHA55 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 55 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 55 parBHA55 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 55 · 6f Yie 137 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 55 par5/0855OR 55BHA55 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 55 · 7f94y Yie 132 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 55 parBHA51 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 51 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 51 par5/0951OR 51projClass-projected finish: 7th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA5111th11th0
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA559th9th0
2026-08-05SligoBHA555th5th0
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA556th6th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA461st1st0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA443rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/051/075/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 8-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/202614th10/147%19%-0.29
05/06/20262nd17/255%94%+0.38
12/06/202610th9/153%36%-0.17
01/07/20263rd11/142%88%+0.45
11/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
25/07/20266th7/163%67%+0.04
05/08/20265th4/179%64%-0.15
31/08/20269th11/142%38%-0.04
05/09/202611th25/10%41%+0.41