IvyArcIvyArc
16

Movin And Groovin

4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 52

Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D win in July her second win at this venue. 7/2, seventh of 10 in handicap at Laytown (7f) 15 days ago. Better expected returned to Dundalk. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: BHA46
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA50 @ Dundalk 10/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 50 · 6f Std 122 · beat its mark10/01/2025 · OR 50 par10/0150OR 50BHA50 @ Dundalk 14/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 50 · 1m Std 131 · beat its mark14/01/2025 · OR 50 parBHA56 @ Dundalk 31/01/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f Std 129 · beat its mark31/01/2025 · OR 56 par31/0156OR 56BHA56 @ Dundalk 04/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 56 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark04/04/2025 · OR 56 parBHA55 @ Tipperary 24/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m1f Yie 133 · beat its mark24/04/2025 · OR 55 par24/0455OR 55BHA55 @ Ballinrobe 09/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m1f138y Goo 134 · beat its mark09/05/2025 · OR 55 parBHA48 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 48 · 1m Std 130 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 48 par12/0748OR 48BHA52 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 52 · 1m Std 134 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 52 parBHA46 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 46 · 7f Std 143 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 46 par10/0946OR 46projClass-projected finish: 4th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10LaytownBHA467th7th0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA523rd3rd0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA481st1st0
2025-05-09BallinrobeBHA555th5th0
2025-04-24TipperaryBHA557th7th0
2025-04-04DundalkBHA563rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/014/0412/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/01/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
14/01/20253rd5/287%78%-0.09
31/01/20256th4/179%62%-0.17
04/04/20253rd9/276%71%-0.05
24/04/20257th16/116%45%+0.30
09/05/20255th4/179%50%-0.29
12/07/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
15/08/20263rd10/147%85%+0.37
10/09/20267th7/282%33%-0.48