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15

River Derwent

8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 40

Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Unreliable type. Seventeen runs since last win in 2024. Fourteenth of 16 in handicap at Gowran (1m, good to soft) in May and he's not one to be making excuses for. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA51 @ Dundalk 31/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m Std 133 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 51 par31/1051OR 51BHA51 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m2f150y Std 133 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 51 parBHA49 @ Dundalk 12/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 49 · 1m Std 131 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 49 par12/1249OR 49BHA47 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 47 · 1m Std 129 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 47 parBHA47 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 47 · 1m Std 129 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 47 par6/0247OR 47BHA46 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 46 · 7f Std 128 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 46 parBHA45 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 45 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 45 par24/0445OR 45BHA43 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 43 · 7f111y Gd 126 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 43 parBHA41 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 41 · 1m Goo 123 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 41 par20/0541OR 41projClass-projected finish: 12th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-20Gowran ParkBHA4114th14th0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA434th4th0
2026-04-24CorkBHA4514th14th0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA4612th12th0
2026-02-06DundalkBHA474th4th0
2026-01-23DundalkBHA474th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1023/0124/0420/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 6-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/202514th28/10%0%0.00
19/11/202512th40/10%15%+0.15
12/12/20253rd40/10%85%+0.85
23/01/20264th20/10%75%+0.75
06/02/20264th16/116%77%+0.61
20/03/202612th12/137%15%-0.21
24/04/202614th20/10%24%+0.24
11/05/20264th10/147%77%+0.30
20/05/202614th28/10%13%+0.13