9
Virgil Tibbs
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 46
Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#17
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 9.2)
Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Gowran Park | BHA49 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA53 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Bellewstown | BHA53 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Dundalk | BHA58 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Bellewstown | BHA61 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Galway | BHA63 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 170% of fieldRange 9-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 02/08/2025 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/09/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 09/09/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 05/11/2025 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 47% | +0.10 |
| 19/09/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |