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Alla Stella

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 99

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting Diamond Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 150y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful filly who finished runner-up in 2 listed races in France in July and August. 13/2, 5½ lengths fourth of 7 to On Message in similar event at Salisbury (1¼m, good) last month. Stable are having a good spell and she has place claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 16/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m Sta 12816/0751 @ Sandown 25/07/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 87 · 7f Gd 128 · beat its mark25/07/2024 · OR 87 par1 @ Curragh 31/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 94 · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2024 · OR 94 par31/081OR 941 @ Curragh 29/09/2024 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 94 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2024 · OR 94 par1 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 96 · 1m2f50y Goo 128 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 96 par26/041OR 961 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 97 · 1m2f42y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 97 par1 @ Chantilly 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 1m2f96y Sft 124 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 98 par19/071OR 981 @ Clairefontaine 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 99 · 1m3f204y GS 125 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 99 par1 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 99 · 1m1f201y Goo 130 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 99 par12/081OR 99projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Salisbury14th4th0
2026-08-01Clairefontaine12nd2nd0
2026-07-19Chantilly12nd2nd0
2026-06-26Newcastle15th5th+0
2026-04-26Nottingham13rd3rd0
2024-09-29Curragh19th9th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0729/0919/0712/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20241st11/486%100%+0.14
25/07/20244th10/382%67%-0.16
31/08/20243rd5/287%71%-0.15
29/09/20249th15/261%0%-0.61
26/04/20263rd25/10%60%+0.60
26/06/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
19/07/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
01/08/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
12/08/20264th13/266%50%-0.16