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7

Charles Fort

3yo Colt · 9-1 · OR 103

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting Diamond Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 150y

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 6f winner as a juvenile and improved to make the places on both starts this year, second in Royal Whip at the Curragh in August and third in Solonaway Stakes at Leopardstown earlier this month. Goes over the longest trip he's faced on all-weather debut and holds place claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 09/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Gd 1319/07C8C8 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f Gd 1339/08C8C8 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 88 · 7f Goo 131 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 88 par2/09C8OR 88C8 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 6f Yie 131 · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 85 par10/09C8OR 851 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 93 · 6f Yie 131 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 93 par22/091OR 931 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 89 · 1m2f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 89 par16/081OR 891 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 102 · 1m Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 102 par12/091OR 102projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Leopardstown13rd3rd+0
2026-08-16Curragh12nd2nd+0
2025-09-22Fairyhouse19th9th0
2025-09-10Cork?1st10th−7
2025-09-02Gowran Park?4th13th−7
2025-08-09Curragh?3rd12th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0710/0912/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/20252nd5/493%89%-0.05
09/08/20253rd7/163%78%+0.15
02/09/20254th2/189%73%-0.17
10/09/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
22/09/20259th5/493%27%-0.66
16/08/20262nd22/10%67%+0.67
12/09/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40