1
Kilcrea Rock
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 89
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting Diamond Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 150y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: BHA77
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA80 | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | BHA83 | 6th | 15th | −8 |
| 2026-05-26 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA81 | 5th | 14th | −7 |
| 2026-05-10 | Leopardstown | BHA77 | 2nd | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-10-16 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |