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4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 88

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting Diamond Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 150y

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful filly who has been highly tried, hitting the frame in listed/Group 3 company this summer before coming good dropped to maiden company at Ballinrobe (13f, good) in July. Failed to get competitive on soft ground at Galway last time. Has work to do.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Leopardstown 05/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 78 · 1m4f Goo 126 · beat its mark05/06/2025 · OR 78 par5/061OR 781 @ Haydock 05/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 91 · 1m3f175y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 91 par1 @ Leopardstown 21/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 92 · 1m6f Gd 128 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 92 par21/081OR 921 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 93 · 1m6f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 93 parC8 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 93 · 1m4f Std 129 · below its mark17/12/2025 · OR 93 par17/12C8OR 931 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 93 · 1m6f Goo 128 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 93 par1 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m5f200y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 93 par8/071OR 93C8 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 96 · 1m4f179y Goo 130 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 96 · 1m4f Sft 135 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 96 par8/091OR 96projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Galway19th9th0
2026-07-20Ballinrobe?1st10th−7
2026-07-08Fairyhouse14th4th+0
2026-05-05Gowran Park14th4th0
2025-12-17Dundalk?2nd11th−7
2025-10-09Bath110th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/069/108/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength29%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20255th22/10%50%+0.50
05/07/20254th25/10%0%0.00
21/08/20253rd16/116%71%+0.56
09/10/202510th25/10%25%+0.25
17/12/20252nd6/492%89%-0.03
05/05/20264th33/10%67%+0.67
08/07/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
20/07/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
08/09/20269th18/15%47%+0.41