6
Spicy Margarita
4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 91
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting Diamond Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f 150y
#7
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | 1 | 11th | 11th | +0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gowran Park | BHA95 | 7th | 17th | −9 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 250/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 12/10/2025 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/08/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 13/09/2026 | 9th | 500/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |