14
Chosen One
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68
Dundalk · Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 2f 150y
#14
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA69 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cork | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Down Royal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Dundalk | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 72% | +0.72 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 77% | +0.40 |