4
Lough Leane
6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 76
Dundalk · Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 2f 150y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA75 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA65 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA68 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA68 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | BHA68 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA62 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength83%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 96% | +0.96 |
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/06/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |