3
Nakasero
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 77
Dundalk · Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 2f 150y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA77 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA77 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Leopardstown | BHA80 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | BHA81 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Dundalk | BHA82 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Dundalk | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1781% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 30/01/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |