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11

Quatre Bras

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69

Dundalk · Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 2f 150y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has largely struggled this summer but has come down the handicap as a result. Undoubtedly well treated now so worth a second look returned to his favoured surface.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA85 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m2f Yie 135 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 85 par15/0485OR 85BHA85 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 85 · 1m2f100y Goo 127 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 85 parBHA84 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 84 · 7f Sft 128 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 84 par3/0584OR 84BHA82 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m4f70y Sft 142 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 82 parBHA80 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 80 · 1m20y Gd 134 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 80 par13/0780OR 80BHA80 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m Goo 132 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 80 parBHA78 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 78 · 1m2f150y Std 123 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 78 par15/0878OR 78BHA77 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m2f110y Goo 121 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 77 parBHA72 @ Clonmel 16/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m1f168y Yie 133 · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 72 par16/0972OR 72projClass-projected finish: 8th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16ClonmelBHA727th7th0
2026-08-23NaasBHA775th5th0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA786th6th0
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA804th4th0
2026-07-13KillarneyBHA804th4th0
2026-06-19LimerickBHA828th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0419/0615/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 8-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20264th14/126%73%+0.46
24/04/202611th7/163%33%-0.30
03/05/20268th14/126%36%+0.10
19/06/20268th9/276%0%-0.76
13/07/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
16/07/20264th11/142%40%-0.02
15/08/20266th10/147%62%+0.14
23/08/20265th11/142%50%+0.08
16/09/20267th4/179%25%-0.54