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Slieve Binnian

6yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81

Dundalk · Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 2f 150y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time course winner who confirmed his return to form when close fourth over C&D last month. Found the Irish Cambridgeshire too competitive next time but he rates a big player back in these much calmer waters.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA94 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 94 · 7f Goo 131 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 94 par13/0994OR 94C0 @ Bahrain 02/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 131C0 @ Bahrain 29/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f208y GF 13129/01C?C0 @ Bahrain 19/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 127BHA89 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m1f Sft 140 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 89 par11/0689OR 89BHA88 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 88 · 1m Gd 130 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 88 parBHA85 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 85 · 1m1f Goo 128 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 85 par9/0785OR 85BHA83 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 83 · 1m2f150y Std 128 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 83 parBHA83 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 83 · 1m Goo 119 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 83 par29/0883OR 83projClass-projected finish: 10th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29CurraghBHA8314th14th0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA834th4th0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA857th7th0
2026-06-28CurraghBHA889th9th0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA896th6th0
2026-02-19Bahrain?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0919/029/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/202510th14/126%40%+0.14
02/01/20265th18/15%73%+0.68
29/01/202613th7/163%14%-0.49
19/02/202610th25/10%36%+0.36
11/06/20266th11/142%17%-0.25
28/06/20269th20/10%33%+0.33
09/07/20267th33/10%40%+0.40
15/08/20264th7/282%77%-0.05
29/08/202614th28/10%19%+0.19