5
Steel Cut
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 76
Dundalk · Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 2f 150y
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | BHA79 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | BHA80 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA80 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Curragh | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 8-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 15/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |