8
Tribal Moon
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72
Dundalk · Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 2f 150y
#9
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA103 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA73 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | BHA105 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 13-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 14/07/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/08/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |