13
Connova
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 47
Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) · 1m 4f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA43 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | BHA46 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | BHA45 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA45 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA45 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | ? | 17th | 17th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 12/06/2025 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/11/2025 | 17th | 200/1 | 0% | 16% | +0.16 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 77% | +0.24 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 85% | +0.27 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 95% | +0.13 |