IvyArcIvyArc
6

Deluca Chop

7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 51

Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) · 1m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner who secured back-to-back successes at Navan/Down Royal in June. Again ran well when 4 lengths third of 22 in this grade at Navan last time and should give a good account back on the all-weather (yard also saddles Chopsticks).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA47 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 47 · 1m4f Std 129 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 47 par5/1247OR 47BHA47 @ Dundalk 11/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 47 · 1m4f Std 129 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 47 parBHA48 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 48 · 1m4f Std 130 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 48 par6/0348OR 48BHA48 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 2m Std 131 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 48 parBHA40 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 40 · 1m4f17y Yie 122 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 40 par18/0540OR 40BHA41 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 41 · 1m5f Goo 123 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 41 parBHA46 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 46 · 1m4f207y Sft 128 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 46 par20/0646OR 46BHA52 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m5f56y Yie 134 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 52 parBHA51 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 51 · 1m6f Goo 133 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 51 par27/0851OR 51projClass-projected finish: 1st of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27NavanBHA513rd3rd0
2026-08-05SligoBHA525th5th0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA461st1st0
2026-06-07NavanBHA411st1st0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA402nd2nd0
2026-03-27DundalkBHA483rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1227/0320/0627/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/12/20253rd25/10%85%+0.85
11/02/20262nd22/10%92%+0.92
06/03/20263rd5/174%85%+0.11
27/03/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
18/05/20262nd6/168%93%+0.25
07/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
20/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
05/08/20265th13/266%69%+0.03
27/08/20263rd14/126%90%+0.64