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15

Folk Warrior

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 41

Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) · 1m 4f

#16

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden in both codes. Ran creditably when beaten 8 lengths in this grade on return to the Flat at Navan (1¾m) latest. Type to benefit from first-time cheekpieces. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 31/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m105y Yie 15431/12C8C8 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m Sft 161BHA48 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 48 · 1m4f Std 130 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 48 par26/0548OR 48BHA47 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 47 · 1m2f96y Sft 129 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 47 parBHA45 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 45 · 1m1f Goo 127 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 45 par9/0745OR 45BHA45 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m4f Std 119 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 45 parBHA93 @ Kilbeggan 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 93 · 2m Gd 158 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 93 par8/0893OR 93C8 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 93 · 2m Gd 153 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 93 parBHA43 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 43 · 1m6f Goo 125 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 43 par27/0843OR 43projClass-projected finish: 7th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27NavanBHA436th6th0
2026-08-13Tramore?5th5th0
2026-08-08KilbegganBHA938th8th0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA455th5th0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA457th7th0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA474th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1220/068/0827/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 4-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength41%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/12/20257th250/10%50%+0.50
31/03/20267th200/10%40%+0.40
26/05/20265th25/10%67%+0.67
20/06/20264th9/153%73%+0.20
09/07/20267th12/137%71%+0.35
12/07/20265th7/282%60%-0.22
08/08/20268th16/116%42%+0.26
13/08/20265th7/282%64%-0.18
27/08/20266th22/10%76%+0.76