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16

Ms Messi

5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 51

Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) · 1m 4f

#8

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Third behind Vervain on reappearance at Gowran. Not in same form at Navan subsequently, though potentially well treated off 3 lb lower all-weather mark here. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA62 @ Ballinrobe 23/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m5f9y Yie 132 · below its mark23/06/2025 · OR 62 par23/0662OR 62BHA59 @ Killarney 16/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m3f103y Sft 142 · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 59 parBHA57 @ Gowran Park 26/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m1f110y Gd 140 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 57 par26/0757OR 57BHA54 @ Tipperary 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f115y Goo 145 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 54 parBHA60 @ Roscommon 19/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m4f46y Gd 130 · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 60 par19/0860OR 60BHA59 @ Dundalk 26/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m4f Std 141 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 59 parBHA58 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m2f150y Std 140 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 58 par5/1158OR 58BHA57 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 57 · 1m4f100y Goo 148 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 57 parBHA57 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 57 · 1m6f Goo 139 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 57 par27/0857OR 57projClass-projected finish: 10th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27NavanBHA5712th12th0
2026-08-07Gowran ParkBHA573rd3rd0
2025-11-05DundalkBHA5810th10th0
2025-09-26DundalkBHA598th8th0
2025-08-19RoscommonBHA609th9th0
2025-08-08TipperaryBHA541st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/068/085/1127/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1750% of fieldRange 5-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/06/20257th66/10%54%+0.54
16/07/202511th9/153%23%-0.30
26/07/20259th12/137%33%-0.04
08/08/20251st25/10%100%+1.00
19/08/20259th11/271%27%-0.44
26/09/20258th13/266%46%-0.20
05/11/202510th15/261%25%-0.36
07/08/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
27/08/202612th8/158%48%-0.10